Pumicestone – QLD 2020

Just a little tidbit- Ali King was the ALP candidate for Maiwar in 2017, before choosing to run here.

This is one of the seats Labor will need to gain to make up for losses in the regions. I think it will happen as it’s close enough to Brisbane and far enough from tourism for Labor’s handling of Covid and border closures to boost them here.

ALP gain

Speaking to family and those I know in the area, it does seem line-ball this one (those I know on Bribie solidly Liberal, those on mainland are solidly Labor). I concur with @John that the placing of this electorate in regards to the Covid effect, the small margin and being an open seat bring this into play.

Prediction (August 2020): TOSS-UP – Possible ALP Gain

In fact with all my original August predictions, this is the only seat I can see as an ALP Gain. Campaigning and watching some other close seats might change that.

Simone Wilson has been a solid performer and hopefully her efforts can flow through to the new LNP candidate.

Why is Wilson going so soon? Resigning after one term isn’t common, and the LNP aren’t gonna love her for doing it in one of their most marginal seats.

Bribie being the normal LNP stroghold but elderly might make it swing towards Labor at this election. I have this as an ALP gain.

Labor is contesting this seat very heavily. Both candidates have campaign offices on the main street of Bellara (on Bribie). (Simone Wilson also has an electorate office there).
I was there about a month ago – Labor had an old bus and a boxtruck with campaign decals parked off the main street. Interesting strategy.

I think that as restrictions on corflute signage increase both majors are moving to vehicle wrap strategies for pre-election-period campaigning.

Labor seemingly really want Ali King in parliament – they’ve thrown her at quite a few different seats now! Interesting if this one flips and turns out to be the one that keeps Labor in gov.

I have worked booths on Bribie a number of times for DLP, KAP or Country Party and it is one of the most overtly Liberal seat I have experienced. 10% of them turned up to In 2016 with Liberal HTV. This was one of the most unpleasant booths I have worked due to the behaviour of Glen Lazarus supporters. Talking to one of the electoral commission staff a few years later he agreed with me. Inexperience on working a polling booth leads to an inability to recognise that all party volunteers have more in common with each other than they have with voters. At Bribie Orchid Society even the One Nation booth captain was on good terms with ALP LNP, KAP, DLP, Country Party and FF volunteers. FF lady had brought everyone morning tea until she left because of fear of Lazarus’s Football mates.
My prediction Bribie More strongly LNP than last election and mainland more pro government Than last time.

Maybe I’m missing something but I don’t see how a seat with more than 20% ON primary vote at the last election could possibly be a Labor gain. Those preferences are much more likely to flow Liberal this time around. Have there been significant demographic changes recently? Younger voters moving back in with mum and dad because of COVID? I only see LNP increasing their margin here.

Furtive Lawngnome yes there has been a slight change in the demographics with once-rural areas like Elimbah becoming more urbanized. Seems to be moving towards being a liberal stronghold and it would be hard for the government to gain this one.

When the ONP candidate was excluded in 2017, those prefs went 71% LNP.
http://results.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/state/State2017/results/booth70.html

That figure’s getting close to par with Greens flows to Labor, so I don’t think there’s necessarily that much left to give that isn’t just former LNP primary returning as prefs.

September prediction: LNP retain.

Ooohh @FtB, interesting prediction 🙂

When I heard Simone Wilson was retiring after 1 term, I was concerned but I think her quality replacement can retain.

@BJA I just don’t see how Labor does any better this time than last and they couldn’t win it then. Any flow back from PHON this time surely mostly goes to the LNP’s primary? PHON prefs overwhelmingly favoured LNP last time. You gotta do well on Bribie to win this seat.

@FtB
Yes, my thoughts are something like that – the Labor candidate last time was a Bribie High teacher, which may have attracted some vote on the Island but this time its not a local.

@Feel the Bern

You do have to acknowledge Labor disendorsed Rick Williams at the last moment. And then their new candidate was thrown in at the last moment as well which wouldn’t have helped Labor’s cause. Plus Rick Williams stood as an independent which will have likely taken some votes away from Labor.

Steve Wardhill wrote in the Courier Mail yesterday he thinks Pumicestone is likely to go back to Labor. On Sportsbet its lineball with Labor and the LNP tied at a $1.85 each. Labor will be throwing everything at this seat. The incumbent not recontesting after one term certainly is doing no favors for the LNP when they have seats elsewhere to worry about.

Decided to have a look at the betting pools (via Ladbrokes), to see which seats are currently looking like changing according to the punters. This seat is lineball according to punters (the below show just the most notable parties for the seat)…

Labor – 1.83
LNP – 1.83

Saw on twitter the result of a Newspoll which has Labor ahead 54-46.

Political Nightwatchman very well summarised. I always thought Rick Williams had a rough ride admittedly a lot of it was his own fault. ALP vote must have been impacted.
I suspect that the very strong appearance of Liberal dominance on Bribie may to some extent been an unwillingness to admit that they are voting Labor when in fact they are doing so. This snobbery probably extends to polling data so ALP lead could be greater.
My gut feeling is Labor is back and only factor weighing against this is a couple of phone calls each week from stony Z who is emphatic ALP are losing’
I got my nvote yesterday but my wife’s (application submitted by email at same time as mine has not yet arrived). I did note that ECQ advised they had despatched all postal votes. Some 800K.

Labor rate this as their best chance of taking an LNP seat but not the only chance. Their polling late last week suggests they may well govern in their own right by as many as 3 seats despite conceding that South Brisbane is an uphill battle.

Ok my final prediction here, I’ve been swayed, Labor gain, the polls I’m seeing there can’t all be rogue. The old folk vote to get Labor across the line here, a definite seat decided on COVID factor.

So, a couple of weeks ago I noted that Ladbrokes had this one lineball. Ladbrokes doesn’t seem to be updating much of their odds, so I figured I’d look at Sportsbet instead. Sportsbet has this firmly on the Labor side…

Labor – 1.50
LNP – 2.50

Prediction: Too Close to Call – Lean ALP Gain. Either way I think the margin will stay around 1%.

RH321 Pummicestone was an aberration last time so it is better to look at previous results.
As I have said previously it is two distinct communities Bribie and Mainland.
I have worked Bribie for DLP in 2007 and last Federal election for Katter and for Country Party. It was overtly Liberal. Orchid Society in middle of Bribie was a very pleasant booth to work. Even One Nation were civil which is not always case.
When Sullivan held Pummicestone it extended down to Burpengary and population of Bribie was lower.
Electorate is creeping towards Bribie and in doing so becomes potentially a safe Liberal seat. My prediction in 2020 will revert to ALP but by 2024 a safe Liberal seat.
Bribie Residents are insular and they face the prospect of a bridge with serious problems. The promise of a new Bridge could result in a party making promise throwing all predictions out of window.
Mind you most Bribie residents do not want more tourists.
In 2007 the election went berserk its the prospect of a desalination plant on island or in hinterland with the totally false hint of a nuclear power station to power the desalination action plant.

The one term MP leaving, Covid 19 and demographics here are very Labor friendly. One Nation votes should swing better to Labor than LNP here.

ALP gain.

Labor gain